Welcome to the after hours podcast presented by my Investing Club. I’m your host Harry, and I’m joined by my co host James. And in this episode, we have a very special guest, Joe, the head moderator at MIC, if you’re someone who’s interested in the world of finance, investing and trading, then this podcast is for you. We cover a range of topics, including large caps, real estate, and even the future of artificial intelligence. But it’s not all about finance and investing. We also share some life stories and talk about our experiences in the industry. This podcast is unique because we don’t just focus on the technicalities of trading and investing. We go beyond that and talk about the human side of it, where we share our struggles and successes, and we discuss how we’ve overcame those challenges in our personal and professional lives. So whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting out, this podcast is guaranteed to provide you with some valuable insights and information that you won’t find anywhere else. So sit back, relax, and join us as we dive into the world of finance and beyond in the after hours podcast.
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James 1:02
What’s going on guys, we’re back with another episode of the after hours Podcast. Today we have Joe Kelly, who is a returning guest. He is the head mod over at MIC. And he’s also one of the main large cap traders that we have. So wanted to get him on and kind of talk about the overall market talk about a few different topics that we will dive into. So Joe, thank you for coming on my friend.
Joe 1:23
Thank you. It’s a pleasure.
How Are You Feeling About the Market Right Now?
James 1:26
So I guess we’ll dive in. So right now where we sit the mark, I think spy Dow’s down a little bit today. But Mark has just been chopping around. We just got news that they the Fed raised the half a point. And it doesn’t really look like they’re stopping on their mission of like stopping inflation. So Joe, like how are you? How are you feeling about the overall large cap market right now? And kind of what are you thinking going forward?
Joe 1:52
Well, I think based on what what all Jeromy Rome said he was going to do he’s going to do everything in his power to to fight, as he said, to fight inflation. And I think that a half a percent was generous. Like, I expected him to just like come out of the woodwork and hit us with like, 1%. Because if you look at what’s happening, bro, nothing’s slowing down. Like, purchasing hasn’t slowed down any really, truly, we’re finally kind of seeing this tail on the real estate market to where there’s people that are not really they’re not jumping into these really expensive homes. Okay. But, you know, we’re talking over 500,000, you know, over half a million dollars. They’re not, they’re not, they’re not diving into those houses immediately, just you know, going buck wild like they did in 2020 and 2021. And even in the first half of 2022. Now, we’re seeing and I’m logging into my charts right now, just so I can I can I’ve been out on the road all day long, bro. Looking at. I mean, that’s that’s how I’ve been talking about these properties. Because bro, I’m literally looking at stuff. And the what we’re seeing is we’re seeing how those that are just sitting there sitting when they’re over that kind of, like out here. I’m looking out here in Colorado, and out here in Colorado, they’re spending if they’re over 600 grand, unless it’s just absolutely perfect. Okay, and but why I think we bounce when in the markets because if you look at look at a chart on spy like everybody that’s with us right now, on March 8 2023. Look at that intraday chart, we bottomed out at 396 59 in the spy in the SPY, and at the end of the clothes, we did nothing but rally straight into it. And in my opinion. I think that was solely based on the fact that people thought we were going to get a higher rate hike. After what Jerome after Jerome’s opinion yesterday, I think I think people went, Oh, half percent. Okay. That’s really not that. Okay, we were prepped for that. That’s all right. So I think what’s going to happen in the markets going forward is still going to be this continuation of this sideways chop this whole time. I do not think we’re going to have any kind of positive reaction outside of for anybody’s like long term portfolios. I think it’s going to be flat. And I don’t I don’t see us going anywhere. Like I don’t see us above 420. But in the very, very immediate future based on that reaction, like on the webinar that we just did yesterday. My opinion was we were continuing lower and bass that the rate hike was not a full percent or one point 85 are really aggressive as like Jerome made it seem like he was going to do then I think the market kind of went Oh, okay, fine. We’ll just chop around here. Yeah.
James 5:14
why is it that you think people are choosing like, I feel like when I talk to people and like my day to day life, I feel like people are just ignoring the fact that like, inflation is still hot. Powell has said multiple times, it’s not coming down at the rate we want. It’s not even really coming down. It’s barely budging. And he has said from the beginning, he wants people to not get excited in the market. He wants people to not get excited in their spending, but people are just ignoring everything. And that’s what I think scares me long term. But like, why is it that you think people are just choosing to ignore this like a half a point, it might be better than a point. But that can just mean longer prolonged hikes, rather than maybe a few big ones? I don’t know.
Joe 5:54
I agree. I agree that that’s a concern. I agree that that the fact that it’s just a half percent now means that there’s more coming, he’s just not going to do all at once. But I do believe and this is just speculation at this point that people, myself included in 2020, and 2021 2021 2020 really set up one of the most phenomenal years that I’ve ever had income wise for, which was in 21. And 22. Yep. And I’m certain because dude, I’m not, I’m not smarter than the average bear. I’m an idiot. And if an idiot like me can make a killing, I only imagine what people made, that we’re poised to take advantage of those situations that were in far greater, like financial positions than I was, I can only fathom what they made. Yeah. And I think that people aren’t hurting in terms of money to spend. And, ya know, lower income people. Yeah, they’re hurting, they’re hurting. But I believe the middle class that took advantage of crypto are still reaping the benefits of it. The dad bod that bought Bitcoin at $8,000, and it went to fucking 60. Yep. That is, you know, and those people that cashed in on that and are still in a profitable position. Yeah, dude, I think that these people still have money to spend. Yeah, I think that’s the reason why we haven’t seen it. They have money to spend.
Harry 7:35
Yeah. What do you think is going to take them? Like, what do you think it’s going to take to dry that out? Or if you think it’s going to dry out at all? Like, do you think we’re ever going to hit like a spending slowdown? Ah, it’s a hard question.
James 7:56
Need layoffs?
Joe 7:57
Yeah. I mean, that’s the type of hard questions that you got that I’ve heard yall posed. And I’m like, yeah. It’s, it’s, I don’t, I don’t know, I could speculate scenarios all day long that I think people could run into. But I think the, the risky part is anybody that did like an adjustable rate mortgage on their home, or they’ve maxed themselves out on their credit cards. Or they stretched themselves on car payments. I think it’s going to take bankruptcy on people to really, to let that hit home. Like I think there’s like, I don’t think homes are gonna foreclose. I think this time, it’s gonna be the auto market. I’ve been saying this for the last year, if you guys are watching the podcast, or NMI, see if you’ve seen any of my old large cap stuff. A year ago, I was talking about how the automotive industry in the US is the next collapse. We’re just not there yet. We’re not there yet. And we will be soon. But I think people losing their cars losing they’re losing their means of transportation. That’s a very real possibility that could force spending habits lower but really, that’s me grasping for straws at at a at at a really desperate point right there. You know, I’m just thinking to answer the question because surely, yeah, my answer is, I will be it flowing. The problem maybe 50 Maybe 50% interest rates on revolving credit.
There’s Just So Much Money Out There
James 9:37
The problem is, there’s just so much money out there that I don’t think people even understand like, like my father does home renovations kitchens, baths, all that and like, he’ll just he just sold the job to a 38 year old couple, six 500 grand and it was just a full remodel and it’s like, you know, these are not even like loaded people. They’re like very they great paying jobs, but like, there’s still just so many people with so much money. But I think what’s going to happen is the the older generation, and then the generation without money, like the lower, like the younger or like lower class or whatever, they’re the ones that will get fucked, but everyone else in the middle, it’s just kind of gonna, I think it’s just gonna be business as usual for a lot of people like, I mean, it’s the older crowd has to worry about the market, right? If the if spy tanked another 20%. All the retirees and stuff are screwed, right? I mean, they’re like, they have no money.
Joe 10:32
I agree. And that’s I the long term investment accounts are the ones that are at risk here. That’s truly the people that are costing that 65 to 68. You’re not going to retire for another 10 years, probably, you’re going to be working till you’re 80 you’re going to be working till you’re 80. And you can’t depend on that to be a scenario which I mean, I that’s the cold hard truth, if at all, I wish there were the way that could change that. You know, the the socialist then may wants to say that there is but the capitalists then may just says birds up you made for your own? Yeah.
James 11:14
To be fair, these guys, the most of these people have had a decade plus of like, unlimited returns. I mean, it just if you started, you know, it’s just been since the recession since the financial crisis. It’s been put your money in, grow it a shit ton. And then they take it out and they use it. So if they kind of feel.
Joe 11:33
Typical American mentality, yeah, it’s like, I can take care of it tomorrow, then tomorrow never comes. And they just put it off and put it off and put it off and put it off and put it off. And then one day, when the Grim Reaper is knockin, we ain’t ready. And that that’s the you know, if you always think you can do it tomorrow, you’re never going to do it. Yeah.
Harry 11:57
What do you guys think about? I saw Ford came out with a new patent. Basically, that means if you don’t make your car payments, it drives that motherfucker back to the dealership. What do you guys think when you saw that, like just I heard Joe mentioned the audio industry, which has been a theory that was has been kind of like projected for a little bit by like various people as well. And I haven’t heard too much about it. And then when Joe brought it back up just there. I kind of like thought about it again. And then I thought, that’s interesting. This week, I literally saw a headline about Ford, making that patent for that vehicle repossession to drive itself back, it’s gonna put tow truck drivers out of work.
The Biggest Wake-up Call You Can Get
James 12:42
Yep. Dude, I just want to take this real quick. I absolutely love it. I think it’s not only what should like if technology was there years ago, it should have happened because it’s just a quick story. When I bought my last car. I’m sitting there with my buddy who owns the dealership, and I’m sitting next to his office is right next to the finance office, right? And I hear this kid in there buying a 21 Corvette car, right? He’s financing it. His monthly payment was like $2,300. Holy, but he just wanted it, you know. And not only that he had a shit interest rate, because then there was already high interest rates. And I’m sitting there thinking like, this is insane. He’s gonna lose that car. So at the end of the day, if you’re dumb enough to go buy a car where you have a car payment, that is like ridiculous amounts of money that you can’t afford. You deserve your car to drive itself back to the dealership, and that is the biggest wake up call you can get. That’s a that’s a big You’re welcome there from the Ford. I love it. I think it’s hilarious. Yeah.
Joe 13:48
Well, Ford was the one of the few automakers that during the 2000 something whatever 2008 prices or whatever the hell it is. 2001 They were the one. They were the one automaker that didn’t take the bailout. Right. Yeah. And I’ve always said that Ford has been on the they’ve always had a pulse on the market that unlike any other unlike any other automaker Ford has always. And not just because I worked for Ford in the past, but they’ve always had a close pulse on the market, and they’ve always positioned themselves to take advantage of it. And the what if an automaker is filing a patent for cars to repossess themselves. Then what do you think that that says the automaker thinks about all the decisions that the dealers made and the finance companies made during 21 and 22? What do you think? We think it’s probably trash. Right? We think it’s probably trashed with these people paying 10,000 $15,000 over sticker You’re on a car and getting, you know, an interest rate, but their payments are $1,200 a month. When you start running DTI and PTI debt to income payment to income numbers, you’re going to discover that $1,400.12 $100 is the maximum allowed amount for a person that makes nearly six figures a year. And sometimes, sometimes, in most cases, not sometimes in most cases, anyone that bought after 21 is they have a car payment near 1200 bucks right now. $900 $1,000 $1,100. And they did not buy, like fag wagons like James drives.
James 15:44
Can we edit that out somehow? Do I have a guy that?
How Did You Learn About Car Repossession?
Harry 15:48
Yeah, you do right here. I want to I just want to tell a quick story. Just from that.
James 15:58
we possess itself and looking back.
Harry 16:02
So I learned about car repossession from a young age where my best friend he went out and he bought a BMW, everyone told him it was a bad idea. I told him, it was a bad idea used BMW, we’re graduating high school or so I believe we just graduated or so. And so anyway, he goes out, he buys this like used BMW, he’s like, man, like don’t worry about it, like, I’ll be able to make the payments, I’m fine. And meanwhile, he was working at McDonald’s. That’s where he was working at. And so anyway, he had had it for a good like two years or so. But there was still a lot more to pay on that loan, obviously. And it happened and I was home from university. And all of a sudden the tow truck fucking came and took his car. I said, well, for your cargo, bro. It was gone. And so that’s when I fucking quickly learned, you know, like, obviously, but I quickly fucking learned that if you don’t make those payments, the tow truck driver is a common. And he’s like the little grim reaper. And also I want to say one more thing is I was watching someone last night. And he said, if we have a recession, in, you know, let’s say six months, again, actual recession, like whatever we’re in now, like, it could be a recession could not be like, like when people, you know, stopped questioning it and are looking around at themselves and saying, Okay, we are in a recession, you know, that might have that might incline the Fed to start, you know, taking a bit of a different strategy where they start, you know, lowering rates again, and they start saying, Okay, well, we’re gonna save the economy or whatever, we’re going to lower the rates, we’re going to print some more money. If that type of scenario happens. Do you think it could be kind of the bottom of the housing market right now? Because if they start cutting rates or whatever they do, you know, I mean, that would signal housing to start kind of going up. So if that type of scenario happens, could it be that this right now is the bottom of the housing market? Do you think?
Joe 18:19
That no, and I get where I see where you go on. But I think it comes down to making homes unaffordable for buyers on the lending side. So in the US, the maximum DTI on the back end that a mortgage wants to have, it’s like 54%. And what’s going what it’s going to take for that to really take effect is they’re going to have to make interest rates so high that buyers can’t qualify based on income, no matter their credit, they can’t qualify based on the lending standards. They literally have to raise rates to a point where they can’t like people that are trying to sell their homes only people like a bomb or people that are paying cat. Yeah, or putting a boatload of money down to get that payment underneath there. Because, for example, if you just like an 8% rate, if you use 8% on a $600,000 home, you’re probably going to be about 5200 a month. And if the payment is 50 to 100 a month. You have to make nearly $200,000 a year on paper before taxes to qualify for that home. And there’s there’s plenty of people that make less than 150 that are still qualifying for half a million dollar homes. Yeah, so I think what you have to do is you have to price out the buyers and you’re not going to do that with the weight. You’re not going to do it with the home prices. You’re going to have to do it with the hands interest rates, you’re gonna have to do it to where you can’t lend. We can’t lend any more money because people can’t qualify based on the terms.
James 20:08
Yeah. So what’s happening here in Boston, if the Fed –
Joe 20:11
prints money again, it depress it the Fed to talk to your point here, if the Fed prints money again, the interest rates are going to drop again. And the housing is going to rally again. Yeah, exactly. We need. We need years that this goes stagnant. Three years. I’m thinking like we need, we need until 2026 At a minimum, that the real estate market just goes. Yeah.
Harry 20:40
Fed did, for some reason, in the next, like, 12 months, go and print money, and just go fucking crazy and be like, we went too far. backpedal. We did the wrong thing. The economy’s not good. We’re feeling the effects of these rate hikes right now. It was delayed, we made a mistake. We’re sorry, we’re going to print money again, that would signal the house, we’re gonna rally the rally. So theoretically, if we did go into a recession, and the Fed pivoted with that, that could signal maybe, like if that it’s Big World War Three is coming.
Joe 21:19
Yeah. Yeah, yeah, World War Three is coming, if that happens, will delay another will delay a recession for a few years, but then the recession that eventually hit us like you’re, I think what you’re getting at is the eventually, the recession that hit this is going to be so damning and drastic, is going to be worse from 2008. They gotta stick to the plan. They gotta stick to that they don’t stick to it. It’s gonna be good. ruction
James 21:49
I don’t think Jerome Powell is going to move on this one. I think he’s like I said, He’s brick wall here. He’s not going to lose to inflation. Like Volker is his hero. I will stick with it. He’s not going to give up on this fucker. And he can’t. Because the problem is, we’re already at a point where people are breaking. And yeah, and we haven’t even really started, which is crazy. Like, it feels like we think about.
The Problem With the Real Estate Market
Joe 22:15
Senator Warren. Yep. Yeah. Senator Warren’s comments like you don’t feel any remorse for the risk of 2 million jobs. And he’s like.
James 22:27
He’s like this is what’s happening here. In Boston, like these are, this is a nice area, right? These people have jobs, they can save money, they can’t afford shit, they can’t afford a house, he can’t afford a car. And we literally are at the tip that I feel like this is 10 years in the making of us catching up to ourselves and like trying to fix this overspending problem that we had here. You know, again, people who make 200 grand are trying to buy million dollar plus houses that probably can’t really afford it. You know, I mean, I’ve heard crazy stories. And right now here, this is the problem. People have overpaid for houses in this area will refuse to sell their house for any less. So if they’ve already overpaid, they need to make a certain amount to get out of it cleared free, but most people can’t afford that cost. So now like you said, houses are just sitting there and buyers are already getting priced out. And we’re at what 6% interest rates and if they keep going,
Joe 23:25
Here’s the case. Here’s the case dude. So the house that we have in Texas to Texas, it’s far less expensive than any of these other surrounding areas. Hence why everybody’s in California and New York started a crowd in hence why I’m leaving, like all these Californians in New York people with their nevermind there they dude it just got dude he got overpopulated it is over freakin populated and it’s proof that every single year during the extremes of summer in the extremes of winter in Texas that were losing power in Dallas Fort Worth metroplex should not should not happen. That should not happen and in my opinion, is because there are too many freaking people. And what they do in DFW, they don’t build more neighborhoods, like, you know, builders come in and they’ll build a bunch of suburb homes. They build high rises, they build multifamily 200 300 400 unit properties that are just sucking energy out of everything. And they’re booked solid. Yeah, and because summer, summer of 22. Was and dude, I was like, I had a real estate license in the summer of 22. Dude, all I did was just write contracts from home. My house that’s crazy. I didn’t even have to do anything. Writing contracts with people that are going to rent houses. Because bro that that is that. That’s one of the I’m talking to Tyler the moderator, the junior mod in NYC And I was talking to him today we had a meeting today. And one of the things I was talking about was like, Dude, I know a lot of people want to become a day trader, and it’s an, and they want to do that forever. But that’s the commitment. That’s a lifelong commitment that you That is your job. And that is what you’re going to do. For me, what worked best for my personality was using day trading to leverage myself into other avenues that allow me the time to spend with my family and the time that I don’t have to be 150% on the screens every day in my life. Yeah, yeah. And that that’s a hard level of operating every day. That’s a difficult level in order to make money now 2122 Dude, that’s what I was doing. Because I was like, now’s the time to push the frickin candle. And I was pushing as best I could. And when it was done, honestly, now, dude, I’m burnt out, I am burnt out. And because of the avenues that I leveraged myself into using day trading, I may I’m making more, I’ve made more in these first three months. It’s not even a third month. No, I’m making more in the first three months than I did in the first nine months of 22. And interest rates are terrible market is terrible. But I leveraged myself out of the market, in my opinion at the perfect time. And when the market improves. I’ll be right back in it. Yeah, yeah, but I’m not gonna fight this shit. Yeah, I’m not gonna fight it. And I’m not gonna keep I’m not now, I’m not gonna fight it. And I will continue to tell people don’t fight. Yeah. So in this, I went off on a tangent, I honestly have no idea what that was.
James 26:45
No, honestly, that’s because I think one it’s like a massive lesson that like, learning to trade is like anything else in the world where it’s just, it’s a skill to have that you can turn it on and off like a faucet, you want to come back to the well, you can turn that shit on and you can make a metric fuck ton of money. But the reality of it was talking about but the reality is, don’t leverage yourself like Joe is saying into other avenues when times like this happen, because right now, even for small caps, and just what we trade the markets, okay. It’s not amazing. So like, you know, if you’re making million prior, and this year, you’re making 100 grand or whatever.
Joe 27:24
Like that sounds great. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, go great.
James 27:27
It’s but it’s, that’s it, you have the ability to do more.
Joe 27:30
But that small cap live that small cap life, you got to be 150% at the screens, like, all the time every day, like I don’t know if you guys have ever watched that dude, that has like GP penitentiary life on YouTube, he’s less less something. I love that dudes attitude. I just think it’s it just cracks me up. How just like he always at like 120 150 of his personality, he’s always pump and do to operate like that, and never relax, whatsoever. I mean, I got a wife and three kids, bro, two dogs and trying to make moves and all the other avenues. You got to, we can’t ever get any amount of time back. No matter how much money we spend. We can’t get any amount of time back. And so I think the most important thing in life is been as much time as you can, making memories, more than making money. 100% Because at the end of the day, when you leave this earth, the only thing that’s left behind are the memories, not the money, that she gets pissed away real quick. So I’m like to leverage yourself into atmospheres where you’re going to make an impact that people really know. Yeah. But what I was what I was talking about, before I got off on the tangent of the diversification. Sorry, was the fact that homes are so less expensive in Texas. And we’re selling our house. I know right.
Striking When the Iron Is Hot.
Joe 28:58
Yeah, not even connected. Sorry. So like the properties in Texas. They’re so much less expensive than California and New York, right? Then all these inflated areas that people flocked to Texas to come to and then all of a sudden there’s an influx of population everything. Right now our house is on the market. We bought it in 2019 for $228,000. Nice house 28 $40 million. Dude that has nothing on a home. And right now we’re listing it for 350. And it I’m like as I’m sitting here doing this, there have been two people walk through the home in two days. It’s been on the market for two days. This one telling you it’s been on the market for two days. And we have had 15 different buyers. Walk through it in two days. Yeah. 15 ready of those 15 30% have committed to offers. That’s Verizon. That’s what I’m telling you. lower priced homes are still selling like hotcakes if they’re update like our house is updated, you guys, I thought we talked about my kitchen renovation the fact that I had to live in a non renovated, put together kitchen for a year. Because of like James, the red, the freakin contractors are so backlogged that it doesn’t matter what you want to pay them, they’re like, you can pay me whatever, but you’re gonna get online. And dude, it has the most updates and the most everything. And it’s going to sell fat, because it’s a beautiful home. If it wasn’t a beautiful home, it might sit there a little longer get people to think about it. But it’s drawing people that are ready to buy out of the woodwork that were just sitting there waiting for the home to come on the market. Yeah. And we’re going to be what I think we’re going to be in a multiple offer situation. And so these people are not priced out. So back to what Harry would back and what do we got to price them out? Yeah, but they better not get priced out before I’m able to sell let them and then everybody else how it comes back. I love it.
Harry 31:10
I love it. I think one important thing is out everybody. Everyone can just get fucked now. I think yeah.
Joe 31:24
That’s the capitalist me. The Socialist than me wishes everybody. 401k is we’re doing better. But the capitalists that means like, no birds up. I’m out. Yeah, have that.
Harry 31:39
I think I think one thing that Joe mentioned, that was like really important that like maybe we didn’t talk about it enough was that, you know, and also James mentioned as well was the fact that when you’re a trader, you know, you gotta strike when the iron is hot. And when the iron is not hot. It’s not the time to be pressing, you know, and I’m talking to a lot of people who are like long traders and that might see and they’re like, Hey, man, like I’ve been having a little bit of difficulty, like, are the patterns not working, I’m like, Man, the market is choppy right now, where we don’t have a whole lot of like really bullish sentiment or really bearish sentiment, one day, we might get a really good day, one day, we might get all day faders like I talked with James about this daily. And that’s why I’ve also been working on some different strategies to just kind of run my trading on autopilot to, you know, some different swing strategies, some different, you know, overnight hold stuff like that things that I’ve been kind of like looking and just keeping an eye on, because, you know, I think for me, as well, the day ones are good. And yes, you can, you can make money doing that, you know, that’s great. But, you know, you can also make a lot more money with like, the thing is, is that I’m trying to make more money with as little stress as possible, you know, and usually those two things don’t go together. But you know, at this point in my trading career, that’s why I’m trying to get into some swing stuff and to get into some multiday holds and to get into other things like that, because, you know, as far as as fun as it is to be long in the day ones and waking up every morning slamming buttons, you know, I’ve kind of gotten to a point where I just want to, you know, try something different and kind of run it on autopilot and do some things like, you know, Joe said, whereas, like, you know, I don’t know, I just feel like, that’s where my trading is kind of starting to go. Just because like of the way the market is, and I don’t want to be fucking trying to long day ones when spies getting fucking crushed every day. And everyone’s complaining about the market sentiment and people not spending and, you know, logging into these buckets, stuff moves. You know, it was really fun in COVID It was really fun when I was on the come up. And now it just seems like we’re in a situation where it’s just like, the range isn’t really there. The volume isn’t really there, you wake up and everyone’s writing this EDS in chat, maybe you might get one random fucking halter, like we saw with OC OCEA and stuff like that. But I was watching OCEA, you know, back before it even ran a long time ago, you know, and, you know, I’m still new to a lot of this stuff. But, you know, I’ve been trying to kind of like dig deep into filings and stuff like that, and just, you know, look at some other strategies just because I want to position myself in the best position, you know, going into these kind of market conditions, you know, this is what it is, I’m not going to fight it. But that’s what I’ve been kind of working on, you know.
James 34:29
Let me I want to tie this all together and wrap up on one last topic. You need to make yourself non replaceable in every that’s why it’s nice to have a million different strategies in trade and like have different ways to trade different sources of income. Because at this moment in time, the biggest subject out there that everyone talks about is AI and in jobs, it could be trading, it could be in real estate. We don’t know there are a million in jobs where we don’t know what AI is going to start stepping in and doing and taking from us in a weird non kind of, you know, end of the world kind of way. But I know that’s something we’ve been talking a lot about. And you know, Joe, like, how do you? How do you see AI coming into our world and like affecting jobs and stuff like that, because we’re already at a point where there’s so many less people working, and less people working on skills, like we see it at MIT, there’s not as many people we see on the internet everywhere interested in obtaining these skills like trading or real estate, they just want free everything. And do you see a point where AI comes in and just takes it all from them, and there’s nothing left no diversification that can be had.
Make Yourself Non-replaceable in Every Job
Joe 35:48
So I use AI every day in my life now. Because it helps me eliminate all those tasks that are time consuming, and just eat up brainpower. And that, to me, allows me to be able to create opportunities for myself, because that’s the big distinction between our intelligence is a human intelligence and an artificial intelligence is artificial intelligent, cannot create something original, artificial intelligence to have to rely on previously given data to create something completely new, it cannot do that. If you look at all the inquiries, like from from like chat, and GPT, and mid journey, and all of these huge AI bit Jasper AI, they all required data to feed from, they cannot create something truly original. So I think that people that use AI to free up their time to create something truly original, in either a business or in their own life, or whatever it is. I think those are going to be the people that are most productive. And I have a question for you guys. What do you think about these YouTubers that are creating AI bots?
Harry 37:13
Like trading trading? Probably not going to work? You know.
Joe 37:18
I have a hard time because of AI though.
Harry 37:21
Yeah, but I mean.
Joe 37:24
Smart trading algorithms have existed for 20 years. But yeah, exactly. perform them. These, these are not a eyes, the only thing that’s writing the code is the AI. But it’s not improving on itself. It requires a trader that has a working knowledge of the market to take the AI and tell it what to write now, could the AI eventually learn from those inputs and do something? Yeah, maybe? Maybe. But it requires somebody that has a working knowledge, these are not AI bought, think about the services that sell algorithms, trading algorithms. Think about these guys on Twitter, that have always said, Well, my system is fully automated. That’s not AI. That’s just an algorithm. Yeah, exactly. Our AI learns from itself. AI bots do not exist in trading, because it cannot learn from itself. On the retail side. institutional side, I can’t speak to that. I have no idea if an AI exists on the institutional side. And it would not be surprised if it did 100% I think you do. But we throw around this AI term in day trading who much? Too much? You’ve got people like humble creating these, like AI bots to trade. No, it’s just an algorithm that they use, chat DPT to write. It’s still an algorithm that people like, for example, Triforce trader has been writing for 15 years. The dude’s been writing code for 15 years successfully and Stelling those algorithm. They’re not AI, they don’t change. They don’t modify without human input.
How Do You Compete With AI Trading?
James 39:07
Renaissance has been around forever. And they’re all They’re all code. They’re all algorithms. But my opinion is if right now, we’re so green. And I don’t want to say it. In my opinion. It doesn’t happen anytime in the immediate future. But there will be a day where in my opinion, day trading will be 1000 times harder than what it is as a human now. Because how God’s name will you compete with something that’s always getting better, and always adjusting itself and can operate faster than any of us ever can?
Harry 39:41
I think the thing is, is that in order for these people in order for these institutions to make money in order for everyone to make money, they need retail pumping the money in so they can suck it out.
Joe 39:54
Are creating an gotta have done medic Yep.
Harry 39:57
If you’re creating an environment where Retail can’t win and retail can’t feel like they can win, then you’re gonna have no one trading and no one playing the game. And you need people to play the game and entice them, you need that one big runner a month that keeps all those Long’s buying, and you need the stock market.
James 40:15
Will always be there. And this is how I feel. Because no matter what, there’s always going to be the big companies, right? And as long as the stock markets open, there’s going to be people who also can’t afford to buy the apples, the Amazons, the Googles, and all that stuff. So what are they going to look to, they’re going to look for the dumb money, they’re going to look at the small caps and mid caps. So there will always be the people and I don’t putting anyone’s job down. There’s always gonna be the mechanics, there’s always going to be the people that work at stores who just can’t afford they think they’re going to buy that one stock, the idea of pumping cheap stocks has been around for 100 years. That’s not going anywhere, in my opinion. But at some point, they lose a lot. Now they lose 90%. Now that’s going to be 99%. This time, they’re not it. That’s it. Yeah. Competition is already there.
Joe 41:02
Yeah. Now let’s talk about let’s talk about something along that side. These these things that people are generating that they’re there, they like that. I forget the youtubers name, but he’s like that young kid. That haze behaves the heat, or whatever, but I can’t pronounce it. He calls it chat. GTP. And it pisses me the fuck off when I hear it and say chat GPP. Can’t even get it right, man. Oh, my gosh. On anyway. So you did that GPP There we go. And so the dude, I watched the video of this guy, and he claims to have made an AI bot. And he did this scenario where the AI bot wrote a strategy that basically said, Buy when it’s oversold, and sell when it’s overbought using RSI, that strategy has been written in a book 100 times. So all AI did was reference the written database that it received, grabbed that strategy that someone created and fed it back to that person. That’s not artificial intelligence that just freakin queries. That’s Google’s. Yeah, that was factor research that was done by a language model that had the ability to read it back and understand it at a better level than Google could. And the difference, though, is that we as humans have agency, which is the right to choose the right to make a choice for ourselves, we have intelligence and agency, the right to choose. And if we have intelligence and agency and the right to choose, we’re going to choose to try to, let’s say the outcome of a situation that we made a choice that I was not good. Yeah, we are going to we have the ability as humans to choose a different outcome in hopes that the future outcomes going to be good, right. AI does not have that without human input right now. And none of these bought right now. Yeah. Yeah, sure, it could, it could have that chance now. But that’s why I think it’s so important that if, if there’s somebody that fears, AI taking their job, like stylepark, they’ve done it, they feel it’s going to take their job, figure out how to leverage it. In your job, make yourself valuable, because I fully believe that there are going to be people understand how to manipulate AI in order to use it in their jobs. And that’s going to become a skill that gets monetized. If you don’t know how to use AI, you’re not going to get the job when the dude next to you knows how to use AI to get rid of all of those remedial tasks that take forever, and leave you up for more creative process optimization and creative business ventures.
Will AI Overtake Google?
James 44:21
I just I was talking to someone in real estate and they have their own small real estate office. And they just hired a kid who believes that he can work with AI in basically get him to eliminate all of his office workers, not real estate agents, not people who are going to sell the houses, but the people who are writing the contracts. The people who are emailing people to set up appointments, they he believes that that’s what they will be able to do. They will get rid of everybody got it.
Joe 44:48
So here’s the question that I was watching one of the recorded podcasts and James was like I disagree with Joe and so now I have to bring into the space because I’m looking at him in the eyeballs.
Harry 44:56
Now you’re fucking listening.
Joe 45:00
So, James and I, and Harry, all three of us had a discussion in the past. And I didn’t want to pose this question, because I just want to hear your feedback on it. Okay, the situation was, do you think AI is going to overtake Google? And I basically said, Google has so much data, they just haven’t monetized it in an AI format. They have more data than chat GPT, does they have more access to more data than chat? GPT ever could. But what James said was that versus Googling, we can go to something like chat GPT and Google the answer Google the question and get an immediate response like that. But I just lost the headphone, just but a tooth are hyped on this side, man, it’s just like, we’re gonna have to get the editor to like, focus in on that as it falls down in his timestamp, because that’s pretty good. But how do you know that the response the AI is giving you is the right answer. So how do you know? So without research? through Google, I can go for this through different sources? You know, that’s the right answer.
James 46:22
This is where I actually listen to a really good podcast on this. It was the all in podcast, and they were talking about that how were the problem with AI right now is it is it really can be at the discretion of the creator of the AI, you can almost you can almost let like we’re seeing it in a political view. We’ve seen people ask the AI questions about Joe Biden or Trump, and it’ll answer positively about Biden, and then about Trump, it’ll either be negative or it won’t respond or whatever. So we’re already seeing instances instances like that. And I think that that is going to go into eventually entail its own, sort of like, government agency, that is like the truth of AI, like it’s gonna have its own. I don’t want to say Ministry of Truth. But at some point, if if AI is going to be as big as everyone thinks it is, then it has to be a more trusted source. But now, how can you trust with Google because I feel as Google is, when you type into Google, depending on your searches and everything like that, like if you’re a staunch Republican, I feel like your searches are going to be more geared towards your viewpoint, just as the as everything on the internet is.
Joe 47:31
So I agree.
James 47:33
But I think the problem is, like you’re saying, and this is where after we had one, after I gave my point, and I heard this, I started to change my stance a little bit, is that right now on Google, you can still make a choice. You can choose the article, you can see something and get away from it, AI is just going to generate you an answer. And if that’s what you end up believing, then you don’t have any other choice to choose.
Joe 47:55
This is what I’m talking about.
Harry 47:57
That’s agency responses on this in our stance is.
Joe 48:01
We have the agency to choose what we take is the source of truth. So if you GP chat, GPT to answer which is what I do every freaking day now. Testing it answers. But for example, a lot of what I do at the right copy, you know, I do UX stuff, I build apps, I build sites, I build stuff like that. And a lot of that is putting in words that do to create the come up with a frickin paragraph in my head, just like that takes time. And it eats up valuable time. So all I do, I go to chatty PT, and I’d say this is a page but about brahma baba, baba, bah, I want to write a brief description about this header. And it goes. And I’m like, done. There we go. Now I can plug it in. I can read from that I can optimize from that. But it’s using my input to go from there. So we have the agency to choose. If you’re going to search an answer a question. If you’re going to search a question in chat GPT. And you want to validate its truth. What’s the first thing you’re gonna do? What are you going to do?
Harry 49:16
Google is gonna go gonna go to Google.
How to Validate the Truth of a Question?
Joe 49:19
That’s the problem. You’re gonna go? No, you’re gonna Google it because the database is billion of gigabytes of data, compared to chat GPPs less than one terabyte?
James 49:35
What’s to say people don’t start just choosing to believe chat GPT instead of choosing the option of right now, I guess the other option.
Joe 49:41
I’ll pose an even I’ll pose an even bigger situation. What if this is the what if to give you some thought? And this is the video podcast too. So write it in the comments. I want to hear what people think. What if Google stops Feeding what you want to see? What if they stop based on AI? Tailoring your searches to what they think you’re going to want. And they just give you the fire hydrant.
Harry 50:16
People are just like, do we?
Joe 50:19
What do you think is gonna happen?
Harry 50:20
If people are just going to go to another fucking source? Like, I don’t know people? I feel like what people want.
Joe 50:25
Is going to be the source though. I don’t
Harry 50:29
Fucking fucking randomly. I don’t know where the fuck though go bro go on Facebook. Go from Facebook, Reddit,
Joe 50:39
Google.
Harry 50:40
DM that, father? Yeah, go till they feel validated.
Joe 50:46
What do you feel gives you any? What do you feel gives you a source of truth? Like if you ask a question, and somebody tells it to you, what do you how do you know it’s true?
James 50:55
My mom says it’s true.
Harry 50:59
Go back through your own belief system. It filters back into your beliefs. Like what like how you believe things to be true. The only way is that you you just have to you see it from your point of view how you navigated life, your belief says have you ever
Joe 51:13
Read the book? Yeah. Have you ever read the book from George Orwell? 1984?
Harry 51:19
I read that in high school.
Joe 51:21
Read it again. Yeah, read it again. And and consider today? Yeah, I think that dude was very, very, very, very right. But he’s just off on the timeline by about 80 years,
Harry 51:35
Just like the recession.
Joe 51:41
But anyway, write that in the comments, guys, everybody that’s watching this, anybody that listens to it, write in the comments what you guys think what it would be like, if Google did not tailor your searches based on its own data that it has read from you. Then how are we going to decide what’s the source of truth because they’ve been go to a political side of the political view. You’ve got the Republican side, this is just us. Right? This is just us. And we’re only a US only makes up about let it makes up less than 17% of the world’s population. Like a tiny fraction of us. Are Republicans and Democrats, a tiny fraction of the rest of the world. What’s that source of truth? Kim Jong Hoon, Kim Jong Il, what are they on? What are we on? Now? I’ll own son. I don’t know what. Yeah, I don’t know what, what level we’re at there. Maybe Zelinsky will be a source of truth. Maybe Maybe Putin will just be like this. And then that’s the that’s it, we’re like, there we go. Okay, fine. And I think that, you know, Trump was the disrupter of the, of the, of the whole system. He pointed out how many untruths there were, Trump was a moron, an idiot, beautiful businessman, very talented businessman, but he’s an idiot. Just because I support that side of it, that he pointed out a bunch of untruths. It just made the rest of us consider what we’re receiving from the media, what we’re receiving from any other sources of knowledge that we consider, what’s your truth? What What how do we prove it the truth for me? When I have a question, I’ve got to prove it with math or science. I agree. Now, if it comes from a purpose, or a point of like, logic and ethic.
Harry 53:31
Get into gender on this podcast. Jesus.
Joe 53:35
I wasn’t headed there. Actually, I would not. So I’m gonna create a spin off podcast where I talk about that, though.
How Do You Identify Truth?
James 53:43
I don’t want to, I don’t want to talk about my gender. But I do have to wrap this up in a second. But I do want to say, I don’t think we’re that far, from kind of what we were saying, like, how do you identify truth, people just choose, like you said, people choose their own truth. And that’s how you can tell when we use COVID as an example, people chose to believe it whatever they wanted about COVID. But the virus whether it was for whether it wasn’t deadly as it as it was told to us, or if it wasn’t, if maths worked or not, people are at this point now where it doesn’t matter. And I guess this can go back to AI because you’re just going to Google you’re going to search in for me certain I’m not saying I do but searching GPT is wearing a mask good or bad. And whatever it tells you you can choose to believe it, you’re gonna choose to believe it.
Joe 54:29
Add an additional query to it. Just add an additional question. Okay. Chad GPT. Thank you for that answer. Please, please provide me with some studies that have proven that is correct.
James 54:40
People don’t do it, though. They don’t. And then.
Joe 54:42
Yeah, because we have to have some kind of study that proves that that was the situation, right? Are you just going to take it at face value, and that’s the end of it. But the first thing we’re going to do to answer my question, James, and that’s just I just have waited so long for this moment, and it’s so sweet. It’s sweet. I just wanted to go Alright James, what are you going to do? If you don’t know if that’s the truth? He’s be like google it.
James 55:09
Ask Jeeves and that will be my ministry.
Joe 55:13
James will the original he was the E RIT. Original. What is the what is the dude on? Avengers? Oh, Tony Stark’s assistant.
James 55:28
Oh my God, that’s bad. How do I not know?
Joe 55:32
It’s just because I’m putting it to us like this. Oh my gosh, man, Perry come on the AI assistant.
Joe 55:39
Tony Stark’s assistant. And it’s gonna say Pepper Potts already on it. Ah helper, Jarvis. Jarvis. Yeah, she’s such a herb I’m a real life. NPC God Bless America sorry, blue shirt guy over here didn’t comprehend it. Just quick backstory, I say now anytime you’re just having a moment and you’re just like a dumbass. You’re just an NPC. Now you’re just taking it all the time.
Joe 56:20
Okay, well finish on this Harry. I’ll just tell you back to a real fast that take 30 seconds.
Harry 56:25
I have to pee so bad boys.
Joe 56:27
She’s a year and a half ago James calls me or I call James I was like, what’s up man? I was just checking in like a year and a half ago I call him and he’s like, you know man has been to the Apple store got some new stuff? And I was like, Oh yeah, what’d you get? And it’s like air pods. And he goes but I’m really kind of bars and more like why? Because well if the store and I asked the sales I said you know my microphones that they don’t have any very long they’ve always lose connection. And it’s just I’m just not happy with them. So I mean, what are the what are the new ones like and he’s like well the new ones that have worst battery life they still lose connection quite often. They’re pretty terrible. And and then James that the NPC just go oh, that sounds great. Perfect.
James 57:21
I said that like I was a sim like I was like an N{C
Joe 57:29
You put wires back on them too. Oh my gosh. I love that. I can play yo yo with!
James 57:35
Air pods and then I got the cord so I don’t lose them. That’s actually what I did. I am fucking wrapping up.
Harry 57:43
Wrap it up. Thank you, Joe.
James 57:46
Thank you. Thanks, guys. We’ll talk soon guys. See ya